There's tons of buzz surrounding the next gen consoles right now.
After 8 (!) years of current gen tech, we're finally a few months away from seeing new hardware from Sony and MS. Right now, much of the excitement is surrounding the PS4; while Microsoft's console is beset with wave after wave of bad rumors, Sony has been saying all the right things.
That said, I think people are getting ahead of themselves. There are still plenty of reasons that the NextBox and PS4 may not sell any better than the Wii U. Here are the biggest potential pitfalls:
- Price - Just in the past couple of days, we've seen rumors that the NextBox will cost either $500 upfront, or $300 with a payment plan--a similar approach used with smartphones. Many have balked at the pricing, saying that it's an arrogant blunder that will play into Sony's hands. But why are people assuming the PS4 will be much cheaper? Even without something like Kinect built in, the PS4 will still be be plenty expensive to manufacture, what with the GPU matching $200 graphics cards in raw performance and the GDDR5 memory. I expect both consoles to sell for more than $400 at minimum.
- Current-Gen Consoles - With no built-in BC on either console, the PS3 and 360 will most likely be drags on their successors for at least the first year. I don't expect the streaming alternative on Sony's box to be a big factor right out of the gate, assuming it's fully up and running at launch to begin with. Plus several big next gen titles are going to be cross gen, a trend that will likely continue with the E3 announcements. With all these big games coming out for consoles people already have, it'll take a lot for to convince those who won't camp out overnight to pick one up.
- Cannibalism - For all the talk of how Microsoft and Sony's strategies are going to be so different this gen, the people most likely to pick up either early are core gamers and hardcore fanboys. With near-even market share globally, that means it'll take a lot for either company to carve out an edge, especially if they're both around the same price. Hence both consoles may well eat into each other's customer bases, as neither will have the year-long advantage that the 360 did.
- Supply Constraints and Manufacturing Problems - We already saw this happen to both companies during this gen. Sony had serious issues with supply; Microsoft was dogged by the RROD debacle. This is a potential problem for any big hardware release, and it'll be especially bad for both companies if it's an issue on AMD's end as they're providing key components for both.
As excited as I am about the next generation of consoles, I'd rather wait and see what happens come launch. I'm not convinced that the other two boxes will blow the WiiU out of the water yet.
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