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April NPD: The WiiU is Bleeding, The Vita Is Dead, And What It All Means


On 05/17/2013 at 01:55 AM by gigantor21

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So the latest NPD numbers have come out. According to the usual freakshow menagerie and leakers on the site, the WiiU and the Vita had dismal numbers yet again.

Nintendo said outright the WiiU's performance would be weak through August. I doubt they could've possibly imagined things getting this bad though. The console sold below 40k in April, having little to show for itself in terms of exclusives. Next month, the biggest game out for it is the minigame collection Game and Wario; July looks no better than this month.

Many seem to be pinning their hopes on Pikmin 3 in August. I just don't see a big system seller in it, any more than I did with MH3U or Lego City. Nor do I get that vibe from Bayonetta 2, or the Wonderful 101, or even the Wind Waker HD remake.

There will be a Wii U-centric Nintendo Direct tomorrow morning. Hopefully, we at least get release dates for more of those exclusives. But I don't see any big turnaround coming until the big shots (Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Smash, a NEW Zelda, etc) start rolling in around fall. And we won't even know what those games will look like until E3.

But at least the Wii U still has a chance.

The Vita, on the other hand, is done for outside Japan. It's finished. While the sales have been dismal for a while, I've held out hope for several months. But these latest numbers...these numbers simply broke me.

It couldn't even sell 20k in April. Even the first week of sales from Soul Sacrifice--which only did 33k--couldn't raise the weekly average above 5k. No matter what spin Sony tries to put on this, there's nothing in those figues except searing, miserable failure, and it's impossible to turn things around at this point.

In this day and age, a non-Nintendo handheld pulling PSP numbers again was going to be a tall order no matter what. Yet Sony clearly didn't get the memo. Ignoring recent history and  the mobile market, they again gambled on a "console on the go" approach with the price to match. Never mind that many phones can already do Vita-level graphics, or how the PSP's superior tech did little to sway people away from the DS last time.

They were content to build a device for a 2005 audience in 2012, and it blew up in their faces spectacularly. Between a barren, inconsistent release schedule frontloaded with console ports, and the price of both the console and it's proprietary memory, there was little excitement for the device once the initial novelty wore off. Even the price cut in Japan, paired with several software releases, only made weekly sales a bit less embarrasing once the initial spike wind down. I'd expect no better if the strategy were replicated here.

Will having every PS4 game streamable on the Vita make a big difference? Doubtful. As much as people say they're excited about the prospect, saying it's a cool idea and paying over 200 dollars for it on top of the PS4's cost are two very different things. And really...I don't suspect that the PS4 will sell well enough in it's early years to buoy the Vita via Remote Play anyway. These numbers have robbed me of whatever confidence I had in the PS4 or the Nextbox faring any better than the Wii U. 

Sony and Microsoft are asking a lot of people next gen. The current gen consoles are still $250 new, and started at $400-$600, staying at thos levels for years. Thus many people waited years before investing in PS3s or 360s. Now they're being asked to do the same thing all over again, in a much worse economic climate, for hardware that doesn't offer nearly the same technical leap or bold new paradigms. 

But more than that...what exactly are people getting that will justify that investment? We've already seen how crushing dev costs have lead developers to play it safe, squeezing out the middle ground between Super Meat Boy and Call of Duty. What about the new hardware is going to change that from day 1? After all, we also know many of the biggest games--EA's sports games and Battlefield 4, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Watch Dogs, etc.--will be cross gen titles. 

Are the early exclusive titles going to be that much different than those? I doubt it. And I don't know if the market can bear next-gen offerings that are similar to what we have now when the current stuff is still pretty expensive. The hardware prices we're seeing now are what we STARTED at in the PS2 days, after all.

I see the market contracting in a big way next gen. Sales for the new consoles and their software are not going to be the ambrosia that software companies are holding them up as, especially in the early goings. And there's no way in hell we'll see three consoles selling 70 million+ again.

I really hope I'm wrong, though. *sigh*


 

Comments

Matt Snee Staff Writer

05/17/2013 at 03:30 AM

the PSP may have sold dismally but it's still my favorite handheld, and I think the Vita will follow kind of the same trajectory.  I think SOny is going to stick with it and eventually the library will be pretty good.  I still want one, but it's so expensive and I think a lot of people are waiting for a price drop. 

The Wii U does look bad, but that's Nintendo's fault.  the last six months they haven't released crap.  Maybe that will change soon though. I'm actually excited for tomorrow's Nintendo Direct. 

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:20 AM

I'm really hoping they knock the ND out of the park. They need it.

And I loved my PSP, too, even though it was pretty much a non-issue in the States after the first couple of years. Hopefully, it'll manage to do well enough in Japan to keep the software coming--the localization of those games was vital for me. 

Raised_on_Nintendo

05/17/2013 at 03:43 AM

i think you're right about the 70m+ sold argument. unless something incredible comes along, the touch device craze has sucked a lot of interest out of the console market. As for Wii U, it might actually end up doing well long term. We saw how long this recent generation lasted, who's to say the next won't be longer? I imagine the U will have a price drop before we even sniff a PS4 or 720, making it more competitive. As for Vita: oh well. I'm sorry, I never believed in Sony as a gaming company. Yes, they had some hits, but my experience, personally, hasn't been great. My most recent gripe is how Heavy Rain completely bugged out on me a few chapters from the end, which i will blog about soon. I owned a psp, wasn't impressed. To be honest, the only IP from Sony that ever wowed me is God of War, although the Uncharted series looks awesome, just haven't played it. Everything else I like on Sony are 3rd party, mostly on PSX and PS2. So failure of Vita doesn't disappoint on a personal level, but, yeah, it's a troubling measurement of the state of gaming as we've grown familiar with. Sorry for text wall, was input on Wii U.

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:26 AM

No, Sony's handling of both the PS3 and PSP was pretty dismal this gen, so I can't blame you for not being impressed. Fanboys are still clinging to the notion that the PS3 passing the 360 is an actual achievement--but that they went from annihilating the first Xbox to taking 7 years to catch up (and losing the US completely) still stands. And seeing how badly Sony botched the Vita worries me greatly when it comes to the PS4; they're saying all the right things, but they can still screw it up with the details. And the price.

Don't know how the PS2 didn't have enough on the table for you though. Sure, a lot of it was shovelware but... :p

The problem with the WiiU, though, is that there isn't anywhere near the excitement for the Gamepad as there was for motion controls. The big IP will have to validate their decision to go with that design choice, and prove that it can offer an amazing and unique experience worth buying. If not, then even with those games the system doing well long term isn't guaranteed IMO. 

Super Step Contributing Writer

05/17/2013 at 04:44 AM

I see PS4 and 720 faring better than Wii U, honestly; I think that "casual market" dried up, but there are still people that just don't like playing games on PC that will continue to be console gamers and buy PS4s and 720s. 70million+  probably won't happen, but I'm not seeing something as lackluster as Wii U out of the gate happening, either.

Raised_on_Nintendo

05/17/2013 at 05:06 AM
you could be right. i personally have no interest in those systems, at least right out the gate. there are so many great games i missed this gen that will keep me busy, and my wallet slightly fatter, thanks to used market.

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:57 AM

I'm sure there are any number of people who are in that same boat. Hell, there are still plenty of games I haven't played for the PS3 myself, and I've had one since '07. I'm just now playing through Mass Effect 1...on PC, since Steam had 1 and 2 on sale for 10$ or something. I'm looking to get ME3 and Bulletstorm digital through Amazon as well, since they're having monster sales on PC games through May.

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:29 AM

My main thing, though, is that I expect the adoption rate to be even slower than it was this gen and for the lifetime sales of all three consoles to be lower across the board. And considering how developers are going all in on making bigger, prettier experiences on the assumption that the new hardware will light sales on fire, I think that's a serious issue. Considering how so many devs and publishers have struggled to adapt to HD development (and how many never did), a smaller market with slower adoption rates is the last thing the industry needs right now.

Super Step Contributing Writer

05/17/2013 at 04:15 PM

I don't disagree about any of that, I'm just saying Wii U will still most likely be the third wheel this generation. If you look at my collection, you'll know that's not because I don't like Nintendo (exactly the opposite), I just think PS4 and "720" have more mainstream appeal than that particular console, even with higher prices, and will fare better, even if they still don't necessarily fare well by any other standard.

Chunopo

05/17/2013 at 07:27 AM

Unfortunately I think you ve hit quite a few nails on the head here, I do want a Vita but nothing is swaying me to forking out so much for one, their approach to memory cards for example just feel like tea bagging the consumer and they have a serious lack of titles that I consider to be must have. If they started releasing PS2 classics I might still get one but it will still take a lit of development work. Consoles are going to need to be a bit more like PC's in that they can be upgraded I think, but I ve no idea how they'd make that work (that or people will just move into PC gaming completly/ Apple etc will hit a fully functional entertainment system with controller) I think  ironically that this could be the most open the market has ever been!

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:55 AM

No matter what they say, they could've easily allowed the use of normal SD cards if they wanted. But they didn't want to allow for the rampant piracy that went on with the PSP, or spook retailers by making it easier for people to buy digital and avoid picking up games at retail. But that's simply a risk they needed to take--along with keeping the price below $200 with slightly weaker hardware, rather than going hogwild with hardware that's already obsolete compared to tablets and pricing themselves out of the market.

The number of mistakes they've made with the Vita is staggering. Especially when so many of them are the same problems the PSP had.

As much as I'd love to be able to just replace parts rather than have to buy a new system every cycle, the ease of use that comes with simply having one device over time is the main draw for consoles from a marketing standpoint. I don't know if any of the console makers would want to buck that trend. Although I certainly wish they would...

leeradical42

05/17/2013 at 08:34 AM

out of hand helds im still a psp fan minlyncause i really like there library of games and as far as the next gen systems are concerned it will be a year after there release before i get on board with which ever system i decide although with a big price drop in the current gen systems i may take advantage of this time to get a ps3 and build up a already existing library then after all the bugs and what not of the next gen systems comes out i may at that point decide on a new system.

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 09:59 AM

I see plenty of other people either getting the much cheaper last-gen systems with their bigger libraries, or just sitting on the stuff they already own for a while. The PS4 and 720 are not the huge leap forward in tech and features that the current gen devices were over the PS2. Indeed, I don't think we'll ever see such a jump again, let alone anything like the 90's where you went from the SNES to the Dreamcast in one decade.

transmet2033

05/17/2013 at 09:43 AM

EA not developing for the Wii U is somewhat distressing, but I do not think that it will make much of a difference.  I will most likely get a Wii U at some point in the near future, but I will be getting it for all of the nintendo games.  

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 10:49 AM

While I doubt they would've supported it that well anyway, the worrying thing is that many other developers are equally tepid about the Wii U and see little reason to make games for it. That trend needs to change in a big way going forward.

transmet2033

05/17/2013 at 11:29 AM

I think that once nintendo gets their big franchises out onto the Wii U things will turn around.  I know that I have been given permission to get a Wii U once Mario Kart comes out.

Homelessrook

05/17/2013 at 10:30 AM

It kills me the Vita is doing so bad. It is a great hand held, but the game support sucks. I hope with Ys, Killzone, and the new Batman coming out will give it the boost that it needs. Also they should have went with SD cards instead of their own storage card. 99 bucks is to much for 32gigs.

gigantor21

05/17/2013 at 10:48 AM

You can get a 1TB hard drive for that price. Why Sony thought people would be willing to pay that much in a market increasingly leaning towards digital distribution is mindboggling. They could've added built in memory, at least...

Homelessrook

05/17/2013 at 10:52 AM

That is true. I personally think the age of gigs are over with in storage.

Temperance

05/18/2013 at 01:53 AM

That's terrible.  There's no other words to describe both the Wii U's and Vita's sales performance at this point.  They're both pulling in niche sales, which makes sense when you consider the types of games appearing on both platforms (or not appearing).  This is especially true of the Vita, and it's not going to change.  While Ys, Dragon's Crown, and Muramasa are interesting games, it's not enough to change the system's fortunes or widen its appeal.

As for the Wii U, I can't see it recovering.  The system simply costs too much and lacks the necessary software to sell the hardware.  I'm sure we've talked about this before, but there's just too much competition and very little to differentiate the Wii U from what's already on the market, Nintendo or otherwise.  The industry is changing, rapidly, and the strategies that worked seven years ago no longer apply to today.  Nintendo was not ready for HD development, they have little to no partners in the Western development community, and Japanese developers are fleeing to the handhelds.  Whatever it was they hoped to accomplish with the Wii U has been ruined.  Even if they manage to release a game or two to spark sales of the hardware, there isn't enough to keep gamer attention afterwards.  The past few months have done nothing but paint a very grim picture of the Wii U's future, and I think Nintendo should prepare for the worst.

gigantor21

05/18/2013 at 09:28 AM

Yeah, I had already talked about the Vita and the Wii U's sales multiple times on 1UP already. :p

But seriously, though. On the NPD numbers, the Wii U is already tracking FAR below the Gamecube--a trend that may only accelerate over the course of the summer. While the GCN sold no less than 100k between it's 1st May and July, the Wii U is already selling under 40k now and has no big games lined up between now and August with Pikimin 3. They've already stated that The Wonderful 101 won't be out until September, and neither Bayonetta 2 nor the Wind Waker remake were even mentioned during Friday's ND.

But unlike the Vita, I'm still not willing to give up on the Wii U entirely. I still think it can pull similar numbers to the N64 (around 40million LTD) if Nintendo plays it's cards right. The Vita's failure--and even the 3DS's lower momentum compared to the DS--represents a broader shift away from dedicated handhelds in the West, especially those not made by Nintendo.

smartcelt

05/18/2013 at 11:23 AM

This is really sad news on both fronts. I plan on getting a WiiU sometime this summer. I usually give every platform a try. I own a Vita,but currently have two games. Felt the need to get one as I think it shows promise. Best handheld I own now. Sucks that it's dying a slow,painful death. Ironically I have been playing my PSP a lot,and watching movies on it. I  only hope the WiiU can pull out of the death spiral it is going into right now.

gigantor21

05/18/2013 at 05:00 PM

What games do you have for the Vita?

As horrendous as the Wii U's current numbers are now, though, I think they still have a chance. If their holiday numbers don't exceed the GameCube's, though, they're fucked. 

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