So the latest NPD numbers have come out. According to the usual freakshow menagerie and leakers on the site, the WiiU and the Vita had dismal numbers yet again.
Nintendo said outright the WiiU's performance would be weak through August. I doubt they could've possibly imagined things getting this bad though. The console sold below 40k in April, having little to show for itself in terms of exclusives. Next month, the biggest game out for it is the minigame collection Game and Wario; July looks no better than this month.
Many seem to be pinning their hopes on Pikmin 3 in August. I just don't see a big system seller in it, any more than I did with MH3U or Lego City. Nor do I get that vibe from Bayonetta 2, or the Wonderful 101, or even the Wind Waker HD remake.
There will be a Wii U-centric Nintendo Direct tomorrow morning. Hopefully, we at least get release dates for more of those exclusives. But I don't see any big turnaround coming until the big shots (Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Smash, a NEW Zelda, etc) start rolling in around fall. And we won't even know what those games will look like until E3.
But at least the Wii U still has a chance.
The Vita, on the other hand, is done for outside Japan. It's finished. While the sales have been dismal for a while, I've held out hope for several months. But these latest numbers...these numbers simply broke me.
It couldn't even sell 20k in April. Even the first week of sales from Soul Sacrifice--which only did 33k--couldn't raise the weekly average above 5k. No matter what spin Sony tries to put on this, there's nothing in those figues except searing, miserable failure, and it's impossible to turn things around at this point.
In this day and age, a non-Nintendo handheld pulling PSP numbers again was going to be a tall order no matter what. Yet Sony clearly didn't get the memo. Ignoring recent history and the mobile market, they again gambled on a "console on the go" approach with the price to match. Never mind that many phones can already do Vita-level graphics, or how the PSP's superior tech did little to sway people away from the DS last time.
They were content to build a device for a 2005 audience in 2012, and it blew up in their faces spectacularly. Between a barren, inconsistent release schedule frontloaded with console ports, and the price of both the console and it's proprietary memory, there was little excitement for the device once the initial novelty wore off. Even the price cut in Japan, paired with several software releases, only made weekly sales a bit less embarrasing once the initial spike wind down. I'd expect no better if the strategy were replicated here.
Will having every PS4 game streamable on the Vita make a big difference? Doubtful. As much as people say they're excited about the prospect, saying it's a cool idea and paying over 200 dollars for it on top of the PS4's cost are two very different things. And really...I don't suspect that the PS4 will sell well enough in it's early years to buoy the Vita via Remote Play anyway. These numbers have robbed me of whatever confidence I had in the PS4 or the Nextbox faring any better than the Wii U.
Sony and Microsoft are asking a lot of people next gen. The current gen consoles are still $250 new, and started at $400-$600, staying at thos levels for years. Thus many people waited years before investing in PS3s or 360s. Now they're being asked to do the same thing all over again, in a much worse economic climate, for hardware that doesn't offer nearly the same technical leap or bold new paradigms.
But more than that...what exactly are people getting that will justify that investment? We've already seen how crushing dev costs have lead developers to play it safe, squeezing out the middle ground between Super Meat Boy and Call of Duty. What about the new hardware is going to change that from day 1? After all, we also know many of the biggest games--EA's sports games and Battlefield 4, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Watch Dogs, etc.--will be cross gen titles.
Are the early exclusive titles going to be that much different than those? I doubt it. And I don't know if the market can bear next-gen offerings that are similar to what we have now when the current stuff is still pretty expensive. The hardware prices we're seeing now are what we STARTED at in the PS2 days, after all.
I see the market contracting in a big way next gen. Sales for the new consoles and their software are not going to be the ambrosia that software companies are holding them up as, especially in the early goings. And there's no way in hell we'll see three consoles selling 70 million+ again.
I really hope I'm wrong, though. *sigh*
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