DFC intelligence recently projected that the PS4 and Xone are both primed to sell over 100 million units each over the next 5 years. That's a load of horseshit if I've ever seen it, particularly when next-gen consoles didn't exactly reinvigorate the overall market in a big way last year--even alongside Battlefield, Pokemon and GTA.
Thus, here are my way-too-early predictions for how the latest consoles will sell:
PS4 - 100-120 million units
The Sony brand has always been stronger in Europe overall, and the Xbox One won't have any more presence in Japan than it's predecessors. So that's two major markets pretty much locked for Sony. In the States, meanwhile, I expect a closer battle; while the Xone is doing badly now, the brand still has enough strength to be competetive here. Esepcially if MS does itself a favor and drops mandatory Kinect bundling to even up the price difference.
Still, I expect Sony to win both in the US and globally.
Xone - 50-60 million units
As a more expensive, weaker console with one of the worst rollouts in industry history, the Xone has a lot dragging it down. Indeed, even having the advantage in price and performance didn't help them get away from Sony last gen, as the PS3 and 360 are now neck and neck in sales numbers. That's despite the PS3 being a $600 laughingstock with few worthwhile exclusives for the first two years of it's life.
Yet that same comeback is why I'm not as keen on digging it's grave as others might be. While it's bound to end up being second place globally, that doesn't mean it's doomed to sell as low as the original Xbox did in the wake of the PS2's onslaught. I think that it can still do well enough to remain viable as a console--although one has to wonder whether MS would be satisfied with that, given their "Trojan Horse" machinations.
WiiU - 10-15 million units
Nintendo's console, though, is a mess. It's tracking far below the Gamecube in sales, and is the only major console I've heard of that sold less in it's first full year than the holiday launch that preceded it. Later titles such as MK8, Smash and Zelda will help staunch some of the bleeding, but the fact is that the Gamecube had several multimillion selling first party games and still lost to the PS2 and Xbox.
Plus the WiiU has serious problems the Gamecube didn't. No one thought that the Gamecube was a far behind it's competitors--in fact, it was even stronger than the PS2 . The Gamecube was also sold at a profit despite being $150 less than the WiiU's launch price And nobody thought the old Wavebird controller was just a new add-on for the N64.
So yeah. Not getting my hopes up on that one.
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The industry is going to have a serious problem at the high end. AAA development is already a financially perilous approach, with budgets so bloated that even millions of sales don't guarantee profit. And my projection is that they'll have more or less the same number of "core-centric" consoles as last gen--which is a problem, as budgets are guaranteed to go up again. I expect the ambitions of major devleopers in the AAA space to shrink to accomodate this.
I also expect smaller indie developed titles to continue their rise in prominence, but not nearly enough to offest the decline of big publishers. For all the excitement and hype surrounding the indie space, it's still a very core-centered niche overall, with few games having the breakout success of a Rust or a Minecraft. Mobile will continue to be a cesspool of scammy practices and IP theft until the bubble it's riding pops.
It will be a time of great change and radical shifts, even compared to the generation that just ended. It's gonna be a hell of a ride.
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